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Saturday, March 15, 2014

Property equilibrium?

Is there such a thing as property equilibrium?  The property equilibrium I refer to is that of slow predictable price changes as demand and supply interact in a semi predictable way.  Well in my mind equilibrium of this type is a long way off.

Counter balancing effect
We now have the counter balancing effect of artificially low interest rates, historically high price to income ratios and a banking system still largely within the control of the public system.  This is in no way normal and certainly remains a long way from a predictable state of equilibrium.

Richer than I thought!
My view, for what it's worth, is that we are still only at the start of the long-term unwinding of a massive house price bubble.  I'd love to be wrong.  That would make me considerably richer than I thought.  Common sense however tells me that with the average house price to earning multiple approaching 6 not far from the historic highs just before the crash in 2008 and rising.  We are a long way from the long-term average of just over 4.

Interest rates rises
As interest rates start to rise to 'normal' levels it will mark a progression on the long road back on the road to residential property equilibrium.  Anybody who thinks that the financial crisis is over is much mistaken.  The reality is that next year when interest rates move of the floor we are only just about to take the first steps back to 'normality' and equilibrium.
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