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Thursday, May 19, 2016

Brexit house price and rent falls

There's no doubt about it - residential property is not the opportunity it once was!  As an investment opportunity it increasingly lacks certainty.
In the words of one minister, this Government want to hear landlords squeal. ( Yes, like a pig,... Mr Cameron) 

A further cloud of uncertainty is the Brexit vote.

 The National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) and the Association of Residential Letting Agents (Arla) claim rents and property prices will fall if we Brexit.

As part of a report compiled with the help of the CEBR, the NAEA and ARLA predict Brexit would cut immigration rates, and thus demand for property, bringing falls of £2,300 for the average UK property price, and a £7,500 fall in London during the course of 2018.

According to the report, Brexit would lead to the  UK having 1 million less in its population by 2026 than the current predictions for  'remain'.

The joint report states - 

“Lower immigration would mean less people looking for accommodation which would lessen the demand and, potentially, the upward pressures on housing prices, especially in those regions popular with EU migrants.

Lower immigration would also impact rental prices. UK residents born in other EU countries are far more likely to be private renters. Therefore if fewer EU nationals move to the UK in the long term there may be a noticeable impact on demand levels.”


This report follows the IMF's warning that a Brexit cause property price falls.

ARLA's David Cox comments -

“The fact that rent costs would face downward pressure is both a blessing and a curse. While renters should face fair and reasonable prices, landlords need to be able to at least break even on any outgoings they have, such as a mortgage. If demand eases to such an extent that landlords cannot recuperate costs, we’ll likely see a mass exit from the market, which would then just have the opposite effect on demand as supply falls – and we’d be back to square one.”



12 comments:

Keith Marston said...

Lets not get too excited about this though!
A couple grand when average house prices are what £250k?
This is < 1% so not really worth loosing sleep over....

Anonymous said...

It's these kind of blinkered headlines that only deserve to be treated with scepticism. How about Less Immigration would actually be offset by less outward migration so I don't see population numbers changing significantly.
Also, no Landlord in their right mind is going to let at prices less than their own costs: we do also have other options you know.....

Anonymous said...

What a ridicules statement to make.
Not very much will change within the first few years as the exit happens, The ONLY way house/rents will reduce at worst stabilise is if in the next 5 years a massive house building program gets underway by Government particular in London and the Southeast and how would this program be funded? More National Debt, do you really want that, followed by even more austerity. Leave the EU take back control who comes to this country. I am not stating that immigration of skilled people is not needed. But literally if you are within the EU you can come whoever you are!!!

stur said...

Why do Brexiters rubbish every economic report that comes out and warns of the dangers of Brexit, Brexiters always claim that economic forecasting is a waste of time, Brexiters then go on to predict that if we leave everything will be ok, Dont they understand the irony of their position,
We as landlords have prospered from a growing economy, im in the North east so capital growth hasn't happened for 8 years, but i make a living from rent, Brexit according to people who work in the Financial field will hamper my ability to raise cash, sweet and simple, Precise mortgages being a case in point, this brexit malarky is nonsense

Ag1 said...

Predictions , views,beliefs . Everyone from business leaders through to the the church have a view as to what might happen if we leave or indeed stay in the EU . The only certainty as I see it is that if we stay in then we will continue to face the problems we have today with continued uncontrollable immigration , more eu interference as to how we live, make laws and govern ourselves . It is a stated aim of the EU that they wish to create a federal Europe . So the real question as I see it is simply do we want to be part of this or not .? Whether we stay in or out will have financial and perhaps social consequences , in the case of Brexit for an unknown time , effect and implication . For the stay camp it's all our there and we all understand what this means . Ever closer ties to Brussels and all that goes with it . So ignore all the meaningless drivel that comes through the press and go with your heart !!

stur said...

Unfortunately I like my "heart " to be informed, the press barons and demagogues who are pushing the Brexit agenda would like us to think the economic case is a " tie" This is an unbelievable lie , every national and international economic reputable survey taken has shown Brexit to be disasterous for our Country and economy , Virtually every sector in our economy claims Brexit is damaging , So people may vote with their heart but their heads need to understand what their voting for , Regarding being part of Europe, The press barons have people believing that Europe is something that's done to them, well I don't buy your premise , We are Europe and in a global world we share sovereignty with like minded countries in order to prosper , for our security , and many other benefits,

Anonymous said...

As a country, we will be able to make our decisions and control our destiny. If a govt oversteps,we can vote them out every 5 years. If we stay in the EU, they will continue to intervene,can anyone tell me who is our UK commissioner in the EU? I have googled for his name and get a blank, it is people like him together with junker and task that have imposed tons of meaningless legislation including the useless EPC. An EPC becomes out of date the minute one buys a house as one generally makes improvements, yet it lasts 10 years.We cannot get rid of this legislation as it was imposed on us by the unelected EU

stur said...

Jonathon Hill is our commissioner , appointed by our democratic government , just like our civil servants are appointed and permanent , we are having a referendum which says enough about democracy, we can leave when we want , The European countries decided to tackle climate change together , there was an eu directive about energy efficient housing , which was democratically accepted by our MEPs , UK uses the EPC system other countries use different systems , our government can get rid of EPC any time it likes,

We are the EU , there is a narrative spun in many newspapers that the EU is something done to us , it's a collection of countries who agree to work together

Anonymous said...

I did not vote for Jonathan Hill to represent me ,nor as it goes Mr Junker or Mr Task.I cannot vote any of these people out. In the meantime they can impose legislation on me and the British people. This is not democracy. With democracy, you elect people to govern and if you think they are not doing a good job you can vote and remove them. There is no price for freedom.

stur said...

Did you vote for odonnell? A civil servant drew up many of the plans for dealing with the media in the Iraq war Or all the other faceless beaurocracts in Whitehall? did you vote for the HOL ?
You elected a government who appointed a civil servant to represent uk in Europe , it's called a commissioner , we also elect a European Parliament , it's up to you to get involved. We are a member of the richest club in the world and you want to through it away and you do nt know how it works

Anonymous said...

O'Donell did not take the UK into war -Blair lied to parliament and the people voted him out of power.
This club you wish to remain in has a pretty expensive subscription, and as for being rich - their economy is so bad the ECB rate is at 0% and the UK keeps bailing them out!...Greece is looking for another bail out and Italy is going that way too.

stur said...

My point is odonnell is a civil servant and so is juncker , odonnell recommended ways for the elected government to carriy out its policy so does juncker , you really should look at how the eu runs a market of 500 million , it's complicated but it is democratic, Brussels Berlin and Paris begged us not to go to war in Iraq , but we are a sovereign state and we decided to ignore their advice and kowtow to the US ,
Every reputable economic survey carried out clearly shows there is a huge economic benefit by being part of the EU , LSE Imprrial college PWC these are British independent surveys all claiming that the benefits of eu far out weigh the negatives